By LINDON DODD
—
There is an absentee ballot controversy, indictment of a political consultant, stinky elevators at the courthouse and new flowerbeds all up and down 10th Street in Jeffersonville. Something tells me there is an election about to happen in Clark County.
That means it is once again time for me to take out my tarot cards and eye of newt to make predictions and issue my fall 2011 version of Dodd’s Odds. Remember for those of you who wish to wager — this is just a game, so bet sensibly.
Jeffersonville City Council —District 5
Is Barbara Wilson Jeffersonville’s answer to Ted Kennedy? This year Lisa Noel-Gill is facing Barbara. Some people think this is the year Wilson falls. Hey, you have to prove it to me.
• Dodd’s Odds — (D) Barbara Wilson 9:5; (R ) Lisa Noel-Gill- 2:1
Jeffersonville City Council — District 1
I told Kelley Curran last year that she was running against the one city council member that I thought was unbeatable. Then Kelley had a disastrous primary vote total. However, Kelley has run a wonderful get--out-on-the-street campaign and utilized social media.
Mike Smith is one who always shows up in his district when there is a need. He is usually seen as a Galligan “yes” vote. Most people think Mike is a good guy. Kelley would surely be a bit of a nemesis for the mayor and fellow council members. She would never be a “yes” woman. I do think Kelley will make it a good race but she might be one election away from victory.
• Dodd’s Odds — (D) Mike Smith 2:1; (R ) Kelly Curran 3:1
Jeffersonville City Council — At-Large
I will only give my odds for all the candidates from favorite to dark-horse. My first three are the winning picks, with Dustin White being the fourth best bet and the first odd man out as the council expands its At-large presence, adding an extra seat.
• Dodd’s Odds — (R ) Matt Owen 9:5; (D) Dennis Julius 2:1; (D) Nathan Samuel 2:1; (D) Dustin White 4:1; (R ) Win Walker 7:1; (R) Abe Navarro 10:1.
Charlestown City Council At-Large
I personally know both of the candidates and their personalities could not be any more different. Danny James has been very vocally anti-Bob Hall and is all over the dirty water issue in town.
Ted Little is more soft-spoken and has all but run as a team with Mayor Hall. I talked with many people around Charlestown and this is one of those too-close-to-call races. I won’t wimp out and will make a projection in a razor thin margin contest.
• Dodd’s Odds — (R )Ted Little Jr. 9:5; (D) Dan James 2:1
Charlestown Mayor’s race
If ever I should use some common sense, this is a race I would never comment about or project a winner in. I know and get along well with both candidates. I am friends with supporters on both sides. And this has been about as ugly a campaign season as one can get in a small town.
Oh well, half of the town will agree with my pick and think I am a political guru if my choice is victorious. If my pick loses, I will be universally ridiculed at the Copper Kettle breakfast table.
Bob Hall has definitely made some very obvious and welcome changes to both the appearance and reputation of Charlestown. He is progressive and has been a very active mayor in the community.
Hall is on the cutting edge of a small community, getting involved in its education. Many people are using this as a criticism of him. However, the current state philosophy and funding cutbacks will continue to dictate local community political and civic involvement in the schools. The One-On-One computer initiative is now being copied across the state.
His critics have attacked him mercilessly in very personal ways. There has also been some justified criticism, depending upon the issues you think are most important. The dirty water issue has been the most contentious.
Incumbent Hall and challenger Donna Ennis have different views and plans to address this issue. Bob wants to treat the lines and Donna is promising a new filtration plant. The cost of each of these solutions varies greatly. The ways tax-increment financing dollars have been spent has also been a common issue of disagreement.
Donna Ennis is a smart, well-educated and successful person in her own right. She is an attractive candidate and has made great strides toward winning the race. A year ago, I gave her no chance. Today she has every chance.
As with any challenger, she has criticized most of Hall’s performance. Even his harshest critics had confessed to me he has done some good things. Those who are most adamant against him seem to personally dislike the man. Some have been fired or not hired by him, some not appointed to things by him and others just attack his character.
So much of what I have witnessed has been the very worst of politics. It has been disheartening and sad to see old friends who no longer socialize over small town politics. I hope for healing after next Tuesday but I am not real optimistic. This race could be a virtual toss-up.
• Dodd’s Odds — Projected Winner (R) Bob Hall 9:5; (D) Donna Ennis 9:5
Jeffersonville Mayor’s Race
When Jack Vissing throws a campaign fundraiser at his home for the Republican candidate, we know we have an unusual political event occurring.
Some have questioned Mike Moore’s lack of campaign organization versus Galligan’s well-oiled and well-financed campaign; some have described him as having a political machine. This is grassroots against the political status quo.
Mayor Galligan’s full-speed-ahead and damn-the-consequences style is well-known by everyone. Moore will certainly bring a less aggressive and less progressive approach. For many, this will simply be a vote on two issues — annexation and the canal
I am being assured that the absentee votes are being adequately scrutinized. To counteract the Galligan campaign’s aggressive absentee voting solicitation, Moore has to get a large voter turnout at the polls Tuesday.
Most people, me included, are perplexed at Bob Isgrigg being in the race. I don’t see him getting more than 250 or 300 votes. In this election, that amount could decide the contest.
I have debated with several people as to whom he will hurt. Conventional wisdom says he will hurt Moore; however, at the debate at Jeffersonville High School he all but endorsed many of Galligan’s actions as mayor. An Isgrigg win would turn the political world upside down. A Moore victory will throw the Clark County Democratic party leadership into turmoil.
The thing I hear most from people is that even if they are not voting for Moore, they like him. That goes a long way in politics.
With Galligan — nobody can deny the many good things he has done for Jeffersonville. It’s simply for voters to decide if he is overreaching and overspending or if this is the path upon which they wish to continue.
The difference between these two could not be any more starkly evident. All clichés aside, this is clearly a vote to decide the direction of the city of Jeffersonville. If there is a large margin of victory, it will be Galligan. A close race goes to Moore. My prediction is made with my gut feeling and not from conventional political logic. Election results lately have been surprising.
• Dodd’s Odds — (R) Mike Moore 9:5; (D) Tom Galligan 2:1; (L) Bob Isgrigg 100:1
— Lindon Dodd is a freelance writer who lives in Otisco and can be reached at lindon.dodd@hotmail.com
