FRENCH LICK — We are on the cusp of Labor Day. Beyond Hurricane Earl on the eastern seaboard is there a wave building like the ones in 1980 and 1994?

To a man, whether it is Democratic National Chairman Tim Kaine, or Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker, or 8th Congressional District Chair Tony Long, to St. Joseph party boss Butch Morgan in the 2nd, there is optimism about the fate of the three Democratic U.S. House seats in play here in Indiana: “I think we’ll hold all three,” was the echo at the recent Indiana Democratic Editorial Association conference, whistling past the graveyard.

But U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, who managed the losing 1980 Senate campaign of his father, said on the Thursday edition of “Morning Joe” on MSNBC, “I’d put this year right up there.”

There was a shudder from national Democrats in a Politico story late last week where unnamed sources and pollsters fretted about losing the U.S. House as a virtually fait accompli. Then came horrible housing and GDP numbers (1.6 percent) followed by terrible jobs numbers this week. The Real Clear Politics generic composite showed a tightening with the Republicans leading Democrats 46.1 to 41.6 percent. “It’s a tough cycle,” Chairman Kaine said at the IDEA luncheon. “It’s a tough time, nobody’s happy, but we’ve got to keep going.” Kaine then noted the “energy gap” and added, “Polling shows that’s shrinking. It was 30 percent. That gap is starting to shrink but it’s going to be tough.”

Then came the “historic” Gallup numbers on Monday.

Republicans lead by 51 to 41 percent among registered voters in Gallup’s weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10 percent lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and the largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress dating back to 1942. As for the enthusiasm gap that Kaine talked about, that ballooned out to 25 percent — 50 to 25 percent saying they were “very enthusiastic” — favoring the GOP in the Gallup poll.

Kaine offered a history lesson. “Since Theodore Roosevelt, the party in power loses 28 house and four senate seats” in the first mid-term. That’s the average. We have to acknowledge we’re not in average times. We have to assume we’re running into a head wind.”

There is a new twist in the equation besides any lost element of surprise. Organizing for America — President Obama’s political wing — is in the process of opening up 11 field offices around the state. That is unprecedented in a midterm election. “We don’t need to tell you who the reliable Democratic voters are,” Kaine said. “In 2008 there were many first time voters. We registered most of them. There’s a 30 percent likelihood of them voting in mid-term if we don’t do anything different. OFA began in June starting to contact these first time voters. If we can get the 30 percent to 40 percent, that’s a million new voters. That’s breaking that pattern.”

So, is there a tsunami coming?

In early September 1994, Republican Minority Leader Newt Gingrich launched his “Contract With America.” And then in the Sept. 21 edition of Howey Politics, we moved the 2nd Congressional District (David McIntosh vs. Joe Hogsett), the 4th Congressional District (Rep. Jill Long vs. Mark Souder), and the 8th Congressional District (Rep. Frank McCloskey vs. John Hostettler) into “tossup” based on internal polling we had accessed. All three Democrats lost and Lee Hamilton had the closest call of his illustrious career.

But there are important differences between now and 1994. First, multiple polls show congressional Republicans faring as bad as or worse than congressional Democrats. There have also been several Republican Members (Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska the latest) who have lost primary battles. So there is a broader “throw the bums out” mentality at play split between the two parties. Obviously, Democratic majorities point to the brunt of this falling on their shoulders.

Second, unlike Newt Gingrich in 1994, who had a consistent clarion call to arms that resonated with the average voter, House Minority Leader John Boehner has at times been a communications disaster. Case in point: Boehner has been in Indiana campaigning for Jackie Walorski, Todd Young and Larry Buchson in almost clandestine fashion whereas Gingrich sought the press. House Republicans would do much better on that front if they made Indiana’s Mike Pence the chief spokesman and armed him with a 2010 version of the Contract.

Third, in 1994 Democrats had no unified counter to the wave. This year there is OFA, with state director John Spears explaining that last weekend, OFA contacted 20,000 homes of the first-time 2008 voters and made 6,000 phone calls.

Fourth, unlike 1994, Hill, Donnelly and to a lesser extent Trent Van Haaften have maintained significant money advantages. In the ‘94 tsunami, the Republican challengers all outraised the Democratic incumbents by Election Day. Not only have we yet to see that this cycle, but the DNC holds a significant money advantage over the RNC to date. That could still change.

Finally, we need to see a continuum of the kind of generic spread that Gallup offered up. Keep watch to see if the trend lines continue to widen as opposed to the undulation we’ve witnessed this summer. If we see that in the coming weeks, batten the hatches.

 

The columnist publishes at www.howeypolitics.com