By DANIEL SUDDEATH
Republican Mike Sodrel won’t stop campaigning and declare victory, but he acknowledged a SurveyUSA poll released last week showing him ahead of Rep. Baron Hill is a good sign.
“I’ve always been of the opinion that the only poll that matters is what the people say at the voting booth,” Sodrel stated in a news release.
“But a poll showing you leading by 8 percent sure beats a poll saying you’re behind.”
The survey asked if Indiana’s 9th District race came down to Sodrel and the incumbent Democrat Hill, who would they choose? Sodrel received 49 percent and Hill 41 percent of the votes.
Before he can face off with Hill, Sodrel will have to win the Republican primary where he’s set to face Todd Young and Travis Hankins.
Sodrel credited the lead to voters being concerned about the direction of the country, specifically the actions of Congress over the past two years.
“The sentiments reflected in this poll match the ones that I encounter every day as I travel across Southern Indiana, and they match what I have heard from folks for months before I entered the race,” he said. In response, Hill campaign spokeswoman Katie Moreau said it’s too early for the Congressman to be overly concerned about the numbers.
“Baron is aware of, but certainly not focused on polls,” she stated in an e-mail.
“He’s focused on fighting for the people of Southern Indiana and responding to their needs.”
The SurveyUSA poll was paid for by the blog site, www.firedoglake.com, which posted its results. The blog has been noted for publishing numerous polls that have surveyed popularity of so-called conservative Democrats in Congress that are seeking re-election.
Methods used for the poll have been questioned, including why SurveyUSA relied on 72 percent of its 600 respondents to be age 50 or older.
Political Analyst Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post reported concerns from “National Democratic strategists” over why the percentage of voters age 18-34 used for the survey was considerably lower than the voter files for each state.
Five percent of those surveyed fell into the 18-34-year-old category for the Hill/Sodrel study.
Jane Hamsher runs firedoglake.com and she published a response Jan. 21 to the accusations credited to SurveyUSA. The posting was written by blog author Jon Walker.
“Decisions about question wording, question order, methodology and data weighting are made by SurveyUSA,” the statement read.
“The client has not attempted to tell SurveyUSA how to conduct the research. Concerns about process, weighting and/or results should be addressed to SurveyUSA.”
SurveyUSA reported a sampling error for the survey of plus/minus 4.1 percent.
Walker went on to state in the posting that “Firedoglake selected SurveyUSA because of their very long track record of accurate polling...we fully trust them to conduct the poll in a manner that will produce the most accurate data possible about the potential electorate.”
Of the 9th District residents questioned, 40 percent were strongly opposed to a law requiring residents to carry private health insurance, according to the poll.
One of the Firedoglake’s primary pushes has been for Congress to pass health care reform that would provide a government-run option. The bill passed by the House and voted in favor of by Hill does not include that language.
