By GREG MENGELT
There is a completely different feel to Super Bowl XLIV than the last time the Indianapolis Colts won the Super Bowl three years ago.
In 2006, there was no doubt in my mind that the Colts were far too strong for the Chicago Bears, and they went out and proved it. Even when the Bears’ Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and Chicago later took a 14-6 lead, it never entered my mind that the Colts might lose.
The NFC has improved a bunch since 2006, when it would routinely be called the Junior Varsity Conference, and the New Orleans Saints may be the best NFL champion in more than a decade.
I can’t see any way this isn’t a close and competitive Super Bowl, so I broke the game down, category-by-category, to try to gain more insight into which team will capture the 44th Lombardi Trophy.
SAINTS’ STRENGTH VS. COLTS’ WEAKNESS
It’s getting harder and harder to call the Colts’ rush defense a weakness, but Saints’ running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are the type of backs that have given Indy fits for years.
It’s not hard to see Bush having a big game — rushing, receiving and returning — especially with the Colt “D” concentrating on Drew Brees and the Saints’ high-powered passing game. A couple of missed tackles could definitely turn the tables in New Orleans’ favor.
ADVANTAGE: Saints.
COLTS’ STRENGTH VS. SAINTS’ WEAKNESS
Again, the Saints’ pass defense is only a weakness by contrast to the rest of its team. But as Brett Favre showed in the NFC Championship game, New Orleans’ secondary is vulnerable. As we have seen for 11 years now, if a defense has something to exploit, Peyton Manning will find it and exploit it.
ADVANTAGE: Colts.
STRENGTH VS. STRENGTH
I’ve never seen anything quite as explosive as the Saints’ passing game, especially earlier in the season when 70-yard pass plays seemed routine.
Remember the Saints-Patriots game?
That day, I started to believe New Orleans may just go unbeaten.
On the other hand, Indy’s defense doesn’t give up many big plays. Taking aside the two long pass plays by the Jets in the AFC Championship, the Colts’ secondary is Patrick Roy-like. At the very least, Indy’s secondary will make the Saints earn their points with longer drives than they usually have.
ADVANTAGE: Saints.
EXPERIENCE
Since there are no glaring advantages in personnel or scheme, the game could come down to intangibles like experience and turnovers.
In the history of the Super Bowl, teams with Super Bowl experience are 14-5 against teams with none.
Just think recently. Steelers over Cardinals last year. Patriots over Eagles. Patriots over Panthers. Steelers over Seahawks.
Even in the early days of the Super Bowl, there was a four-year stretch when a team with Super Bowl experience beat a team without it every year.
The only recent exception is the Giants over the undefeated Patriots two years ago.
Knowing what to expect over the two weeks between the conference championships and the Super Bowl is a big advantage. Ask anyone who’s had to deal with it. This could be the Colts’ biggest edge.
SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE: Colts.
TURNOVERS
It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a team as opportunistic in the turnover game as the 2009 Saints (probably since the Packers or Cowboys of the 1990’s).
New Orleans’ defenders are poking at and attempting to strip the football on every play. That means the player with the ball must be aware of this tendency at all times. It has to be priority No. 1 for the Colts. If it isn’t, turnovers will be the difference in the game.
ADVANTAGE: Saints.
INJURIES
The Colts have been playing without Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson and Anthony Gonzalez all year.
That’s not significant.
I just wanted to point out again how impressive the Colts’ run has been in 2009.
On the other hand, Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury is a factor. If he is unable to put pressure on Brees, the Saints’ quarterback may pick apart the Indianapolis defense, no matter how good the secondary is.
ADVANTAGE: To be determined.
COACHING
This is obviously even.
While Sean Payton is a great coach with a strong staff, I think the Colts’ coaches — as a staff — have done a great job this year in its first season under Jim Caldwell.
Of course, it helps having Manning when it comes to making halftime adjustments — something the Colts have done very well this season. However, the Indy defense hasn’t given up a point in the second half of this postseason. That says a lot about Caldwell and defensive coordinator Larry Coyer’s abilities to adapt, too.
ADVANTAGE: None.
THE X-FACTOR
Give Manning a week to dissect a defense and his opponent is in trouble.
Give him two weeks — and 18 weeks of game film — and it’s likely doomed.
Manning is the master of finding a weakness in one week. In two, he’ll know the Saints’ defense’s tendencies better than most of the Saints’ defenders.
SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE: Colts.
SUMMATION
I would question anyone who says he has a handle on this game.
Sportsline’s Clark Judge says Colts easy. It could go that way, but it’s hard to imagine.
Of course, Deion Sanders is picking the Saints and against the Colts for — I believe — the 19th time this season. All five “experts” in The Sporting News called it closer than 10 points with 60 to 70 points scored.
That’s how I’m leaning. Indy pulls away late for its second NFL title in four years.
PREDICTION: Colts 34, Saints 23.
Contact Greg Mengelt at greg.mengelt@newsandtribune.com.
