Well, I spoke too soon.

Last Sunday in my lead to ITFL, I was surrendering to Jimmie Johnson.

I thought he had the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup title pretty much sewn heading into the race at Texas Motor Speedway.

All he had to do was average a top-10 finish in the final three races and his fans would be smooching his butt for the rest of his life for being the first driver to win four consecutive Cup championships.

Then bad luck finally caught up to Johnson and the No. 48 team.

On Lap 3, David Reutimann tapped Sam Hornish Jr.’s bumper in Turn 2, forcing Hornish to get loose and collide with another car. That unfortunate car slammed into the outside wall and then the inside barrier.

Who was driving that unlucky vehicle?

Johnson.

The reigning three-time champion placed 38th, his worst finish all season. Meanwhile, teammate Mark Martin wound up in fourth place and gained 111 points on Johnson.

Martin, who is second in the Cup point standings, trails points leader Johnson by 73 points.

Sure for Martin to claim the championship, he still needs Johnson to have some more terrible luck. But after Johnson’s misfortune last week, it is not required for him to have another finish of 30th or worse for Martin to catch him.

Let me explain.

If Martin wins today (185 points) and leads the most laps (10 bonus points), he would score 195 points. For Martin to take a one-point lead, Johnson needs to finish 14th (121 points) or worse, provided he does not lead a lap.

If Martin wins at Phoenix and leads the most laps and Johnson leads a lap to collect five bonus points, then Martin would get the points lead if Johnson finishes 15th (118 points) or lower.

Yes, that’s all.

What could happen for Johnson to finish in the mid-teens? Check out these scenarios:

• An air gun could lock up on Johnson’s final pit stop with, let’s say, 15 laps to go under a yellow flag, making him lose several positions and not being able to make up those spots in the final circuits.

• It could become a fuel-mileage race and Johnson runs out of gas with two laps to go. As a result, he loses at least one lap and winds up placing between 15th and 20th place.

• With 10 laps to go, the final double-file restart takes place with Johnson in sixth and lined up in the outside lane. But once the green flag drops, a car inside of Johnson drifts up the track and rubs against Johnson’s left-front tire.

The contact knocks the valve stem off and the tire goes flat, forcing Johnson to pit. He finishes two laps down and winds up in 20th place.

This might be wishful thinking for Johnson haters, but the possibilities exist for these scenarios to come into play and make this an exciting Chase after all.



TODAY’S CHECKER’S 500

at Phoenix International Raceway

TOP-FIVE CONTENDERS

1. JIMMIE JOHNSON: The chances might exist for Johnson to lose his point lead, but I don’t see it happening today. Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and the No. 48 team rarely — and I mean, RARELY — have two bad races in a row. Look for Johnson to redeem himself big time at a track he has an average finish of 5.4, which is the best among active drivers.

2. MARK MARTIN: Today’s race should be a great battle between the top two in points because Martin is pretty damn good at Phoenix, too. He won here in April and has an career average finish of ninth at the 1-mile Arizona track.

3. DENNY HAMLIN: He might not have a Phoenix win in his career, but Hamlin always runs well on flat ovals. He has finished in the top six in five of the last six Phoenix races, making him the top candidate today to break up the Johnson-Martin tandem.

4. JEFF GORDON: Gee, you are probably telling yourself in that facetious tone, “Why doesn’t this (insert expletive) pick all the Hendrick drivers today?” That’s hard for me to do with a driver that has a career average finish of 10.9 at the track like Gordon. BTW, I’m not picking all the Hendrick bunch. Sorry, Junior fans.

5. KURT BUSCH: I thought Busch was finished for the season when his lame-duck crew chief Pat Tryson decided he will be leaving Penske Racing at the end of the season to join Michael Waltrip Racing. But Busch has finished in the top-11 seven times in the last nine races, including a win last week at Texas. Expect the Busch-Tryson duo to continue to persevere today at Phoenix, where Busch has four career top-five finishes and seven career top-10s.



TODAY’S DARK HORSE

• JEFF BURTON: The wisest man in NASCAR and his Richard Childress Racing teammates have had a terrible year. RCR has no victories, just 11 top-fives and none of its four drivers are in the Chase. But Phoenix could be a small light at the end of the tunnel because Burton has a history of running good here. The flat-track ace has two wins at Phoenix, five career top-fives and an average finish of 11.2. Burton is overdue for a solid run.



DRIVER MOST LIKELY TO STRUGGLE

• MATT KENSETH: Sure, he has had his share of good runs at Phoenix with one career victory and six top-10 finishes. But in his 14 career Phoenix starts, he has six finishes of 27th or worse, which includes placing 42nd twice. This is definitely a feast or famine track for the 2003 Cup champ.

Contact Kevin Harris at kevin.harris@newsandtribune.com.



CHASE FOR THE CUP STANDINGS

1. JIMMIE JOHNSON 6,297

2. MARK MARTIN -73

3. JEFF GORDON -112

4. KURT BUSCH -171

5. TONY STEWART -178

6. JUAN MONTOYA -236

7. GREG BIFFLE -247

8. DENNY HAMLIN -322

9. RYAN NEWMAN -324

10. KASEY KAHNE -399

11. CARL EDWARDS -440

12. BRIAN VICKERS -520