By DAVID MANN
Is the right hand watching what the other right hand is doing?
In a campaign in which U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel, R-Ind., has spent more than $1.1 million fending off threats from the political left, a previously unforeseen hazard has been growing on the political right.
Enter Eric Schansberg — the Libertarian economics professor at IU Southeast who has captured media attention; put together a small war chest; and seized multiple opportunities to make public appearances (occasionally showing up right alongside his two major party rivals.)
While most everyone doubts that Schansberg will be crowned victorious on Nov. 7, experts and activists have reason to believe he could play the role of “spoiler” for Republican Sodrel, winning the congressman’s fiscal conservative base.
Sodrel, Schansberg and Democrat Baron Hill are vying for Indiana’s 9th District congressional seat.
This will be the third time Sodrel and Hill have faced each other for the office. In 2004, Sodrel defeated then-congressman Hill by fewer than 1,450 votes. Polls and predictors are once again forecasting a close tally next month. Mathematically speaking, that makes every vote that Schansberg gets even more of a factor.
The GOP’s drain
Libertarians tend to draw votes from the Republican Party, according to Tom Wolf, professor emeritus of political science at IUS. With Schansberg making appearances in debates and getting his message out, he could attract a few of Sodrel supporters, he said.
Factor that in with what many experts perceive as nationwide unrest within the GOP.
Rank and file Republicans — with a political philosophy favoring smaller government — are frustrated with the impurity that has crept its way into the party, said Lawrence Jacobs, chair of the political science department at the University of Minnesota’s Herbert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs.
Jacobs is considered one of the nation’s leading experts on third-party politics. His work is on the radar of major media outlets including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and others.
“There is a revolt going on in the Republican Party,” he said.
Since the GOP has gained control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, spending has increased dramatically, he points out. A new entitlement program has been created with Medicare Part D and the No Child Left Behind Act has given government a larger role in education.
Across the country, Republicans are upset with party leadership for allowing this kind of governmental growth under their watch, he said. Libertarians are now what the small government Republicans want.
Essentially, they’re a more pure version of the GOP, he said, a group devoid of political compromises.
YES, WISCONSIN THERE IS A PRECEDENT
That unrest can translate into gains for the Libertarians in an election where Democrats are in the minority, Jacobs said. Third parties tend to do better when the incumbent is of a similar political philosophy.
An example of this phenomenon is the 2000 presidential election between Republican George W. Bush, Democrat Al Gore and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader.
The political left — which had endured eight years a watered-down, Clinton-Gore style liberalism — were drawn to Nader because he was a pure representation of what the liberals wanted, Jacobs said. In the end, millions of Democrats voted for Nader — tipping the scale for George W. Bush to become president.
And it’s happened before on smaller levels.
In an article Jacobs penned for The Washington Post, he pointed to the 2002 Wisconsin gubernatorial race.
Democrat Jim Doyle was elected as governor of Wisconsin by a 45 to 41 percent margin over Republican Scott McCallum. One impressive factor in that election, he points out, was that Libertarian candidate Ed Thompson took 11 percent of the vote — which mostly hurt the GOP.
A DIFFERENT KIND OF THREAT
Cam Savage, Sodrel’s campaign manager, says voters know his candidate is a conservative spender. Sodrel’s record will not allow Schansberg to steal any thunder on the smaller government issues, Savage said. Schansberg has consistently blasted Sodrel and Republicans for spending tax money “like drunken sailors.”
Despite that, Savage is not too worried about it. Libertarians have been on the ballot for years, he said. “It’s just a part of politics in Indiana.”
While Savage is correct that Libertarians have run for the 9th District seat many times in the past, most agree that Schansberg is a different kind of threat.
A party source gives Schansberg his due.
“I think he’s going to show better,” said Al Cox, the Libertarian who ran for the 9th District seat in the 2002 and 2004 elections. Cox took 1.3 percent of the vote in 2002 and 1.5 percent of the vote in 2004.
Cox said Schansberg is far more visible than he ever was.
“I was relatively unknown,” he said.
While Cox did get a chance to debate with the major party candidates both years, the only advertising he had were two billboards. Both were in somewhat rural areas along Interstate 65.
Schansberg has spent thousands on both newspaper and radio advertisements. According to recent Federal Elections Commission data, he still has close to $9,000 left to spend with only a few weeks to go before the election.
And he has something Cox never had — a campaign staff.
In past elections, Cox said he was more focused on educating people about the Libertarian Party — small government, low taxes and civil liberties — the basics.
MEAGER PREDICTIONS
Schansberg himself isn’t sure how the campaign is going just yet. He estimates conservatively.
“I haven’t broken a barrier to being a credible threat,” he said, citing a recent poll that put him at only 2 percent.
He believes that on Election Day, the impact will be bigger than the polls have so far predicted, though it won’t be anything too surprising.
But in his mind, Sodrel isn’t the only one threatened by his candidacy. Both major party candidates are in danger of losing votes, he said.
The conservatives are upset with Republican spending. And liberals are attracted because of calls to lower payroll taxes for the working poor, he said.
The war in Iraq — and Schansberg position of planning a general timeline to withdrawing forces by the end of the year — may also steal a few votes from Hill, as well, he said.
When asked, Hill would not comment as to whether he thought Schansberg’s position would attract more voters. It’s a question that doesn’t deserve an answer, Hill said. “It’s wishy-words, double speak.”
“At the end of the day, I think it’s going to come down to which voters are paying more attention,” Schansberg said.
The only indication he’s gotten that either candidate is more afraid of him than the other was from Sodrel — when he declined to debate in New Albany earlier this month.
All three candidates preliminarily accepted a debate challenge from Clarksville-based television station Indiana 9. Weeks before the debate, Sodrel reneged on the commitment, saying that he might have to be in Washington D.C. for congressional votes.
His decision to pull out of the debate drew fire from opponents, who argued it was highly unlikely for Congress to be holding votes on the Sunday evening that the debate was scheduled. It was the Sunday before Jewish holiday, Yom Kippur, no less.
Sodrel considered it worth the political beating to back out, Schansberg said. He said he’s unsure if Sodrel was afraid of debating him or Hill.
THE PERFECT STORM
For any third party to make an impact three factors have to be present, said Jacobs.
It has to be a close race. The third party has to have media attention. And there has to be a general frustration with the two major parties.
Mike Martin, chairman of the Floyd County Libertarian Party, believes all three of those factors are present — especially the later.
“Basically people vote for somebody to vote against somebody,” he said.
That is to say, Democrats don’t vote for Hill because they like him — they vote for Hill because they dislike Sodrel.
The Democrats and the Republicans are like restaurants that advertise the “world’s greatest hamburger,” he reasoned. Customers go in to the restaurant expecting the world’s greatest hamburger and they end up being handed a hot dog, Martin said.
Voters are growing tired of that kind of bait-and-switch, he argues.
Back at IUS — where Schansberg still spends two days a week teaching economics — Professor Wolf doubts that his long-time friend will take more than a few thousand votes. Whether that will be enough to make in the difference is yet to be seen.
But, he said, Schansberg has given people a choice.
