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March 13, 2007

VALVANO: Need a little help with that bracket

BY BOB VALVANO

If you are like most of the free world, you are pondering over your bracket, contemplating last second changes, or just getting ready to fill it out altogether. They key to a “winning” bracket is knowing some trends, and as importantly, knowing what types of teams can spring early upsets. Here are some helpful trends and types of teams to look for:

• First, while upsets are fun, memorable, and frequent in the early rounds, the fact is, with the notable exception of last year where George Mason (an 11 seed) crashed the party, if you add the total of all four of the Final Four teams, it rarely adds up to more than 10.

(In fact, since 1990, even including last year where no number one seeds made it, the average total of the final four seeds is 10.4).

Plus, since 1990, only two teams seeded No. 3, and one seeded No. 4 have won the title. The 14 others have all been 1s and 2s.

So be careful trying to be too clever. Usually the committee gets it right when it comes to the very best teams.

Now, having said that let me point out that winning brackets correctly identify the early upsets. Keep these points in mind for trying to find the ripe early upsets.

1) No 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1. If you want to go way out on a limb, feel free, but this is usually futile.

2) The midmajors that move on are usually those that are exceptional offensive teams, and usually very good three point shooting teams. When you make shots, you negate size advantages, create space for your players to work, and take advantage of favorable matchups. Look for shooters in the underdogs.

3) Look for tough styles to play against. West Virginia plays a 1-3-1 zone, and shoots a ton of three point shots. That has helped make it a difficult matchup for people in recent tournaments. They are not in the field this year, but look for teams that are unusual in their style of play. But…

4) Beware that the style is unusual for the opponent. For example, having done the Big West championship for ESPN, I was very impressed by Long Beach State and their frenetic pace, with loads of shooters, until I learned they have perhaps the worst first round matchup they could get — Tennessee, a team that is more than happy to play that exact same style and can do it with bigger and faster players.

The same goes for Winthrop, a team that has had some success in recent tournaments. They love to fire the 3, except they are matched with perhaps the only team that likes the 3 more than they do, Notre Dame. It doesn’t mean it is impossible for either of these teams, but I would be weary of picking upsets in these matchups or any where the style the underdog plays compliments the way the favorite plays.

5) Look for underdogs with great guards. Look for teams with lots of seniors. If the underdog has great senior guards, they have a chance.

(In that famous game of my brother Jim’s, when his NC State team beat a heavily-favored Houston team in the finals, the night before he told me, “I don’t know if we will win, but there is no way we are getting blown out. My guards (two seniors, both Division I head coaches now, Dereck Whittenburg and Sidney Lowe) are too good to let that happen. If you have good guards, you always have a chance.” I have amended that with “especially if they are seniors.”

So with that said, here is the skinny on the three local teams of interest:

• KENTUCKY: Almost a carbon copy of Villanova. All significant stats are a wash. Both rebound and defend well. Neither shoots a ton of threes. Should be a close one.

• INDIANA: Numbers favor the Hoosiers. They have shot the three significantly better than Gonzaga, they make fewer turnovers, and are about even on the backboards. This is a favorable first round matchup for IU.

• LOUISVILLE: Much the same as Indiana. They got a first round matchup with a team that does not shoot the three nearly as effectively as Louisville does, even with their inconsistency in that regard. Plus, the Cards take much better care of the basketball which should offset the slight edge Stanford has on the glass. Good opening matchup for Louisville ... on paper.

And that is the key: All these things are on paper. If they always held true, I would be sending you this column from Las Vegas, on my way to Cancun with all my winnings.

If you get a little too serious about your selections, keep this in mind: Last year, a guy who won an online bracket contest and the $10,000 prize that came with it, did it largely because he put George Mason University in the Final Four. When asked what the key was, at least he was honest. He said he got confused and thought he was picking George Washington University.

Have fun and good luck!

Bob Valvano lives in Sellersburg and can be reached via e-mail at bobvshow@yahoo.com. He is a former college basketball coach and current radio show host on ESPN Radio.

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