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April 5, 2009

IN THE FAST LANE: Local NASCAR expert offers his thoughts on Texas

By KEVIN HARRIS

For the last decade or so, I have developed sort of a reputation - and it’s not being a veteran sports writer who has a vast knowledge about Indiana high school athletics.

My family and friends refer to me as a NASCAR junkie. I have loved the sport since zits started sprouting on my face in the mid-1980s and I’m known to arrange my entire weekend around when the race will come on TV.

Need more proof?

Here are a few more qualifications:

• I have attended every Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway since its inception in 1994. In fact, I have a long-standing tradition of taking one of my vacation weeks during Brickyard week.

• I have been to races at legendary Darlington (S.C.) Raceway and Michigan International Speedway, visited Rockingham (N.C.) Speedway, which used to host NASCAR events, and almost went to a race at the infamous Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway. (All I will say about Bristol is a crazy ex-girlfriend and bad timing stood in my way of making that coveted trip. I still bang my head against the wall just thinking about that lost opportunity.)

• My DVR is flooded with about every NASCAR-related show possible. If Tony Stewart came out with a weight-loss/anger-management workout video, I’d probably record it.

Today, I’m starting a new concept in expressing my NASCAR passion.

It’s called “In the Fast Lane,” which will appear every week for the rest of the Sprint Cup season. Just think of it as “The Dish” of NASCAR.

Without further ado, let’s break down today’s Samsung 500 at the ultra-fast Texas Motor Speedway.



TOP-FIVE CONTENDERS

• 1. CARL EDWARDS: It’s simple why “Cousin Carl” is my No. 1 choice to win today - he’s due.

The preseason favorite to claim the Sprint Cup title has not earned a victory this season, and Texas would be a great place for Edwards to snap out of his slump. He has more wins than anybody at the 1 1-2-mile track (three victories) since it started hosting Cup races in the late 1990s. That includes taking both checkered flags last year at TMS.

• 2. KURT BUSCH: His impressive victory at Atlanta, a track with similar dimensions to Texas, makes the 2004 series champion my second choice.

Busch will not run the same car he had at Atlanta. But I guarantee the Dodge he has at TMS will have almost the same chassis set-up as his Atlanta car. Expect Busch to be a strong candidate to charge to the front from the back of the field (28th starting spot).

• 3. JIMMIE JOHNSON: It would be really stupid to not put the three-time defending Cup champ in my top five, especially after he posted a triumph last week at Martinsville. Plus he has the best average finish of any driver at Texas at 9.1, which includes a victory in November 2007.

• 4. KYLE BUSCH: Anytime you have a mile-and-a-half track, Busch has got to be considered a contender. He has already won on one of these ovals this season at Las Vegas, his home track. In addition, he didn’t win the Cup or truck race last week, so he should be determined at Texas.

• 5. MATT KENSETH: The Roush-Fenway driver is right behind Johnson in all-time average finish at Texas at 10.1. Like his teammate Edwards, this is an ideal place to get his season pointed back in the right direction.



TODAY’S DARKHORSE

• JEFF BURTON: It always baffles me that Burton is never considered a pre-race contender at Texas by the so-called experts. But he ranks second in all-time wins at TMS with two and has seven top-10 finishes in 16 Texas starts.

Burton seems to be forgotten at Texas because he has persevered most of his career on flat ovals and short tracks, which are the exact opposite of TMS. But the veteran always runs well here, so don’t be surprised if he is in contention by the end of the race.



WHO MIGHT STRUGGLE TODAY?

• JEFF GORDON: OK, I know Gordon is leading the current point standings and is tied with Kenseth, Stewart and Mark Martin for the most top-10s ever at Texas with eight.

But TMS is one of two tracks where Gordon has never won at in his career (the other track being Homestead). Plus he has placed 43rd twice in his career and both of those finishes were at Texas. One of those last-place efforts came in the spring Texas race a year ago.

And in most of those eight top-10 finishes, Gordon has struggled for the majority of the race and had to have a little bit of luck to get near the front at the end.

I know Gordon is due to win. But Texas is not the best place for him to snap his 47-race losing streak in point-paying events.

Contact Kevin Harris at kevin.harris@newsandtribune.com.

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