JEFFERSONVILLE — After 25 regular-season races, it all comes down to Richmond.

On Saturday night, the 400-lap race will determine the field for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Ten drivers have already locked up Chase berths. Nine of those racers — Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick — have secured spots in the top 10 in the standings. Defending Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart has clinched at least a wild-card berth in the Chase, leaving two vacancies in the playoffs.

Kasey Kahne, who is currently first in the wild-card standings, is pretty much a lock to get one of those spots.

That leaves one valuable wild-card berth and seven drivers have a shot at attaining that spot.

Here is how I think it will break down on Saturday, as I make my usual picks.



SATURDAY’S FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

At Richmond International Raceway

TOP-FIVE CONTENDERS

1. KYLE BUSCH: If you have followed the Chase race closely, you should know that a win for Busch earns him the second wild-card spot. That is what I think will happen on Saturday night. I know this is not a popular pick among the Busch haters out there. But his career average finish at RIR is an unbelievable 4.7, and he has won four of the last seven Richmond events.

2. HAMLIN: Busch’s teammate has an average finish of 7.3 at his hometown track. Hamlin has an excellent shot of winning his third race in a row and entering the Chase as the No. 1 seed.

3. CARL EDWARDS: He has five consecutive top-10s at Richmond and had the car to beat in the Richmond spring race before serving a controversial penalty. He should finish in the top five on Saturday. But he needs to win and hope Busch has a bad finish to make the Chase. That is asking too much for Edwards to earn a playoff berth.

4. STEWART: He goes into the Chase with a solid run under his belt at Richmond and snaps out of his recent slump. Stewart has three consecutive top-10 finishes at RIR.

5. BOWYER: Richmond is definitely one of Bowyer’s best tracks. His career average finish at the 3/4-mile oval is 10.2, which includes six top-10 efforts in the last 11 races. Bowyer should enter the Chase with some momentum.



SATURDAY’S DARK HORSE

• RYAN NEWMAN: He has the statistics to pull off his second victory of the season and make a dramatic rally to earn the second wild-card spot. Newman has a career average finish of 11.8 at Richmond. He has posted six top-10 finishes in the last 11 RIR races. Finally, Stewart is his teammate and should be a valuable asset in helping Newman get the chassis right to get around Richmond. But even though I am picking him as my dark horse, I still do not think those advantages will be enough for him to make the Chase.



DRIVER MOST LIKELY TO STRUGGLE

• KENSETH: He should have the weight of the world off his shoulders after he finally announced this week that he is going to race at Joe Gibbs Racing next year. But when you look at the stats, Kenseth might be feeling some stress again. His career average finish at Richmond is a mediocre 17th and he has not recorded a top-10 finish at RIR since 2007.



OTHER WILD-CARD CONTENDERS

• JEFF GORDON: Although he has two victories at Richmond and I think he will have a chance to record his third straight top-five finish this weekend, I think the four-time champ will fall short of making the Chase. Either a win or scoring 13 more points than Busch on Saturday night gets Gordon into the playoffs, but Busch is way too strong at Richmond and Gordon’s bad luck this season will doom his Chase hopes.

• PAUL MENARD: He needs a win and Busch and Gordon both have to have major problems for Menard to get in the Chase. But he has never had a top-10 finish at Richmond, so don’t expect Menard to pull off a miracle.

• MARCOS AMBROSE: A victory gets him into the Chase. But he has yet to win on an oval and I think the competition will be too tough for him to get that coveted victory on Saturday.

• JOEY LOGANO: Like Ambrose, a win will secure a Chase berth for him. But unlike his teammates Busch and Hamlin, Logano has not been fantastic at Richmond. Only one top-10 finish in seven Richmond races. He will have to wait until next year at Penske Racing to earn that first Chase berth.

Contact Kevin Harris at kevin.harris@newsandtribune.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NT_KevinHarris.