> SOUTHERN INDIANA — Some of the so-called NASCAR experts, particularly the ones on TV, think the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup is a three-horse race right now between Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin and everybody else has no shot at the championship.

But I beg to differ because of one critical race this weekend — Talladega.

There is a reason why Talladega is called the wild-card race in the Chase, and that is because the race is extremely unpredictable.

Drivers never know if the huge wreck (aka “The Big One”) is going to occur. And if the big wreck does happen, racers are even more uncertain when and where it is going to take place.

The wreck could happen anywhere — the front, the middle or the back of the pack. It could happen at the beginning of the race, at the halfway point or toward the end.

Also, drivers do not know when they could possibly be shuffled out of the pack. In my 20-plus years watching restrictor-plate races at Talladega, I have seen several times when a car is in the top five one lap and then moved back to 25th the next lap.

Talladega’s uncertainty always has the potential of shaking up the Chase point standings in a major way. The unpredictability could drop Keselowski, Johnson and Hamlin a few spots in the standings, and help a guy like Matt Kenseth, who is currently 12th in the standings, to get back into the title hunt.

I know some people have a habit of jumping the gun and making crazy predictions at the beginning of the Chase. But in the eight years of the Chase, you never know who the true contenders are until they survive the uncertainty of Talladega.



SUNDAY’S GOOD SAM 500

At Talladega Superspeedway

TOP-FIVE CONTENDERS

1. DALE EARNHARDT JR.: This weekend is a good opportunity for Junior to add a spark in his Chase title hopes at probably his best track. He has five career wins at Talladega.

2. KESELOWSKI: ESPN analyst Ricky Craven says the 28-year-old Keselowski has the maturity of a 38-year-old behind the wheel. But when he gets out of the race car, he talks and acts like a cocky immature 18-year-old. Nevertheless, he should be good at Talladega this weekend since he won there in May.

3. JOHNSON: He has been Junior’s main drafting partner the last few Talladega trips. I expect both Hendrick teammates to hook up again, which should result in another solid finish for Johnson.

4. GREG BIFFLE: Biffle has reverted back to his old whining ways after his meltdown at Dover last week. But he should cheer up at Talladega this week, as he finished fifth there in the spring and has been running well on restrictor-plate tracks all year. Plus Biffle should have good drafting partners in Kenseth or Carl Edwards.

5. KEVIN HARVICK: Harvick and Richard Childress Racing have always ran well at plate tracks, particularly Talladega. They have a chance to make a major move in the Chase this weekend.



SUNDAY’S DARK HORSE

• JAMIE MCMURRAY: He has a chance to have a bright moment in his disappointing season because he has proven he has an uncanny knack of running well on plate tracks. McMurray won at Talladega in 2009 and collected a runner-up finish in 2010.



DRIVER MOST LIKELY TO STRUGGLE

• KYLE BUSCH: On Thursday, Busch issued an apology to Toyota in a prepared statement after throwing a hissy fit about Toyota Racing Development engines over his radio with the usual string of profanities after he had to top off his fuel tank late in last week’s race at Dover. Busch was leading at the time. Busch’s season has turned into a complete train wreck again because of his selfish and terrible attitude, which he tries to make up for it by wearing out his public relations people by having them type out written apologies for him all the time. How much longer is Joe Gibbs going to put up with this guy?

Contact Kevin Harris at kevin.harris@newsandtribune.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NT_KevinHarris.