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August 31, 2012

IN THE FAST LANE: Mixed reviews on new Bristol configuration

JEFFERSONVILLE — Well, the Bristol night race is over and track owner Bruton Smith’s major alteration to the half-mile oval did its job — I guess.

Yes, the new Bristol track provided more of the usual beating and banging than under its previous configuration.

More drivers had shorter tempers, resulting in some dramatic, yet entertaining expressions of anger. Obviously, there was Tony Stewart doing his best hammer throw impersonation with his helmet as he threw it at the nose of Matt Kenseth’s car. Even NASCAR’s Little Miss Perfect (aka Danica Patrick) got upset when she got wrecked by Regan Smith. Before she entered the ambulance after her wreck, she angrily pointed her finger at Smith. (Boy, I bet Regan was shaking in his boots after that.)

But the track had two racing grooves. Yes, the top lane was the preferred groove, but a few drivers did make the bottom lane work like race winner Denny Hamlin.

Also, I thought it was pretty funny that more drivers were going up to the top of the race track, which was where Bruton Smith had some of the banking taken out, because it had more grip as more tire rubber was put down in that section.

Finally, the Bristol night race is always going to be more exciting than the spring race because the drivers’ emotions are more keyed up in August. Therefore, more drivers are going to be more impatient with each other, no matter how the track is laid out.

This weekend, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is in Atlanta. Here are the picks:



SUNDAY’S ADVOCARE 500

At Atlanta Motor Speedway

TOP-FIVE CONTENDERS

1. CARL EDWARDS: To be honest, I surprised myself picking Edwards to win this week after the bonehead move he made last Saturday by not pitting when crew chief Chad Norris asked him to. As a result, Edwards ran out of gas after leading a few laps and wound up 22nd. But his stats are stellar at Atlanta as of late, prompting me to pick him to take the checkered flag. Edwards has four top-five finishes in the last six Atlanta events, including a win in 2008. This is Edwards’ final best chance to win in the regular season.

2. JIMMIE JOHNSON: He has always been quick at Atlanta (9.9 career average finish, three career wins) and he always will be.

3. STEWART: He has been struggling lately with three straight finishes of 19th or worse and needs a solid run to remain in the top 10 in the standings. Atlanta is a good place for him to break out of his slump as he has a career average finish of 11.2 at the fast mile-and-a-half track.

4. KENSETH: Believe it or not, he has never won at Atlanta. But he has always been a contender at the track with eight top-fives and 13 top-10s. All he needs to worry about is being vigilant of another flying helmet from Stewart.

5. KEVIN HARVICK: This might be the race that gives Harvick enough points to make the Chase. He has five top-10 finishes in the last seven Atlanta races. Most of those finishes were under his current crew chief, Gil Martin. Oh, by the way, Harvick has decided to get rid of Martin as his crew chief — AGAIN — at the halfway point of the first race in the Chase in Chicago because he expects to throw another one of his trademark hissy fits and blame his crew chief for his ill-handling car. He plans on replacing Martin with his 1-month-old son, Keelan.



TODAY’S DARK HORSE

• JEFF GORDON: This pick might come as a shock since Gordon won last year’s Atlanta race and has finished in the top 10 in six of the last eight AMS events. But according to most so-called media experts like ESPN’s Rusty Wallace and Brad Daugherty, Gordon has no shot at making the Chase even though he is only 16 points out of the second wild-card spot. Of all the mile-and-a-half tracks in Cup, Atlanta has always been the one where Gordon runs extremely well at. If he can fight off the pressure of making the Chase, he has a good opportunity to win on Sunday.



DRIVER MOST LIKELY TO STRUGGLE

• JOEY LOGANO: I hate to pick Logano as my struggling driver two weeks in a row. But he has a career average finish of 27.6 at Atlanta. Logano has never finished in the top 10 at AMS and his best finish at the track is 22nd. But he did not have a great track record at Bristol entering last weekend, and he ended up winning the Nationwide Series race and finished eighth in the Cup race. So who knows what will happen with Logano this week?



PARTING SHOT

For the second week in a row, I have decided to project who will make the Chase, so without further ado.

• PROJECTED TOP 10 IN STANDINGS: Greg Biffle, Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kenseth, Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick.

• WILD CARDS: Kasey Kahne, Edwards.

• OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: Kyle Busch, Gordon, Ryan Newman, Marcos Ambrose, Paul Menard, Logano.

• ANALYSIS: Since I am picking Edwards to win the race and making Harvick a contender, I have got to include them in my Chase projections this week. But those picks could change next week if they struggle at Atlanta. Busch has been mediocre at Atlanta, so he could find himself in a big hole next week if he fails to have a strong run on Sunday night. Despite Gordon being my dark horse this week, I still think he will need to have some luck to make the Chase. Still, 16 points are not an overwhelming deficit. The borrowed time Newman inherited might have run out after his accident at Bristol. Like his fellow wild-card contenders, Newman is in desperate need of a win. Ambrose is one of the hottest drivers in Cup right now with four consecutive top-10s and three straight top-fives. But he needs to do something he has never done in his NASCAR career to make the Chase, which is win on an oval.

Contact Kevin Harris at kevin.harris@newsandtribune.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NT_KevinHarris.

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